Everyshore Intelligence Network

EIN Advisory — Elarel Threat Assessment (2025-10-28 → 2025-11-04)

Summary

• Elarel has experienced sustained and organized hostile activity over the monitored period. The principal victims are industrial and exploration pilots (Ventures, Procurers, Herons) and a handful of slower, high-value combat ships (Dominix NI, Brutix).
• Attackers are using cloaky / high‑alpha and small‑gang playbooks (Stealth Bombers, Black Ops, covert T3 fits). This produces short windows for reaction and a high probability of instant-loss for lightly‑fit ships.
• Peak danger: US & EU prime time, especially Friday evenings (≈19:00–23:00 UTC). Other recurring windows (see “Temporal Risk Windows” below) should be treated as high-alert periods.

Key findings

• Primary activity target: mining and resource gathering — Ventures and Procurers are the most frequently killed vessel types.
• Most active and highest-risk individuals (ranked by lethality observed):
  1. Cailin Dioltas — Manticore (Stealth Bomber). Threat level: 4.5 — instant alpha kills of frigates/indies.
  2. Cadhla Dioltas & Aladar Krahn — Tholos / Redeemer pair. Threat level: 4.0 — coordinated small-gang force with Black Ops capability.
  3. Vipy Styx — Vigilant (Cruiser). Threat level: 3.8 — capable of soloing heavy ships.
  4. Cadhla Dioltas (alternate fits) — Tengu / Garmur. Threat level: 3.5 — versatile, hard to escape.
  5. Dejan Estemaire — Ashimmu. Threat level: 3.0 — strong web/energy neutral control vs miners.
  6. Turkish Razormane & Peter Powers — Loki / Legion / Tholos. Threat level: 2.5 — potent T3/strategic fits currently used for lower-effort farming but able to escalate.

Temporal Risk Windows (UTC)

• Tuesday 00:00–01:00
• Wednesday 14:00–16:00
• Thursday 04:00–05:00
• Friday 19:00–23:00 (highest concentration of Venture/Procurer kills)
• Saturday 06:00–13:00
• Sunday 00:00–02:00

Tactical implications (rooted in observed actor behavior)

• Cloaky/high‑alpha tactics are in use (Stealth Bomber Manticore, Black Ops Redeemer). Expect very brief engagement windows and little/no opportunity for local backup to arrive.
• Small‑gang and highly skilled solo pilots are active and have demonstrated the ability to kill large, slow targets (e.g., Dominix NI) — do not assume a battleship is safe from single‑pilot threats.
• Industrial pilots represent the most attractive and vulnerable targets; mining ops should be considered primary risk exposure.

Recommended mitigations (procedural and fitting guidance)

• Miners / Industrial pilots (Ventures, Procurers)
  • Treat Elarel as hostile by default. Avoid AFK/mining while unattended.
  • Where possible, operate during lower-activity hours (analyst suggests 07:00–11:00 UTC as comparatively quieter), but remain cautious — activity occurs across many windows.
  • Fit for survivability: maximize tank (shield/armor depending on hull), include a Microwarp Drive or Afterburner to aid escape/aligning, and carry a point‑defensive module if available. Consider fitting a warp core stabilizer only if alternative escape options are present — many attackers rely on alpha/torpedo damage rather than warp disruption.
  • Keep a short align vector (warp out bookmark/station) and be prepared to warp immediately on suspect local presence or probe activity.
• Explorers
  • Covert operations are at risk from cloaky hunters and long‑range tackle. Avoid extended probing in anomalies when local shows multiple pilots or known names in system.
  • Use align/wormhole/quick‑warp habits, and consider hauling relic/data runs in faster frigates during low‑risk windows only.
• High‑value / slow combat ships (Battleships, Faction Cruisers)
  • Do not assume safety by ship class. When operating in Elarel, scout with a dedicated cloak or use a scout alt to check for cloaky signatures and hostile names in local.
  • Fit to reduce tackle vulnerability (propulsion, tackle counters) and/or bring escorts. Single‑pilot hunters in faction cruisers have proven ability to destroy heavy ships here.
• General
  • Expect use of covert jump or Black Ops staging (Redeemer involvement); stringing escape routes through adjacent systems may not guarantee safety if attackers can bridge or cloak into system quickly.
  • Minimize loitering in belts, acceleration gates, or gate docks; be ready to warp on first sign of hostiles.
  • Consider moving mining or exploration to alternative, less-targeted systems if regular operations are required in Elarel.

Operational outlook

• Short term: Elarel remains dangerous to indy and explorer pilots and poses a non‑trivial risk to slow combat hulls during observed windows. Attackers are organized enough to sustain repeated operations and to employ cloaky/black‑ops tactics.
• Medium term: Unless attackers scale down or change behavior, industrial activity will continue to be the primary casualty class. Pilots should assume a high probability of loss without tactical adjustments or escorts.

EIN assessment

• Threat level for industrial activity in Elarel: High (avoid solo/AFK ops; use strict defensive procedures).
• Threat level for high-value ships: Elevated — use scouts/escorts and harden fits.

Issued by Everyshore Intel Network — Tactical Advisory Unit
(Advisory derived entirely from analyst-supplied kill/activity data for Elarel, 2025-10-28 → 2025-11-04.)