Elarel – 2025-11-19
Threat Level: HIGH to SEVERE (localized, sustained hunting ground)
Date Range Observed: 2025-11-12 → 2025-11-18
Primary Hazard: Coordinated lowsec roaming gangs using Strategic Cruisers, Combat Recon, Stealth Bombers, and an occasional Dreadnought.
Executive Summary
- Elarel is an active, deliberate hunting ground. Attackers repeatedly target miners, explorers, haulers, lightly‑fitted cruisers and capsules.
- Operators include repeated, identifiable characters flying Manticore (stealth bomber), Lokis/Tengus (strategic cruisers), Combat Recon hulls (Curse/Ikitursa) and a Moros Navy Issue dreadnought — indicating both small‑gang and capital‑level capability.
- Temporal pattern shows near‑constant activity, with the heaviest risk during UTC 08:00–20:00. Early‑morning hours show concentrated covert‑ops (stealth bomber) activity; late evenings often include battleship/capital deployments.
Named recurring threat actors (observed)
- Cailin Dioltas — Manticore (Stealth Bomber) — repeat covert‑ops ganks, capsule double‑taps.
- Hunter Dredd & John Shepard21 — Loki (Strategic Cruiser) elements — coordinated interdiction and multi‑role fleet work.
- Boruet Annages — Curse / Ikitursa — E‑War + heavy strike capability.
- Kayla Starchild — Tengu (Strategic Cruiser) — support for covert/roaming ops.
- Izzy Crane — Moros NI (Dreadnought) — capital presence confirmed.
Tactical Assessment (what the data implies)
- Single vulnerable targets (Venture, Probe, Prospect, small haulers, pods) are extremely likely to be engaged and destroyed.
- Stealth bombers operating in early hours are optimized for surprise kills on probes/miners/pods — assume cloaked bomber threat when stationary.
- Multiple strategic cruisers + combat recon indicate coordinated fleet tactics (tackle + E‑War + focused damage). Encounters with multiple T3s are likely fatal for solo subcapitals not fleet‑supported.
- Presence of a dreadnought makes prolonged high‑value asset presence (or capitals) untenable.
Operational Recommendations (rooted in observed behavior)
For Miners & Industrial Ops
- Avoid mining in Elarel entirely while operating Orcas, Rorquals, or expensive haulers. The attackers specifically target industrial ships and Orca-type assets.
- If you must operate: use a cloaked T1/T3 covert ops explorer or an aligned, fast mining frigate (minimal cargo value), mine only for very short intervals, and remain constantly aligned to a warpout point. Never tank on the field expecting to repel coordinated T3/BS forces.
- Do not undock expensive haulers or industrial command ships; transits should be avoided during 08:00–20:00 UTC.
For Explorers & Probe-Users
- Assume a Manticore or similar bomber may be cloaked near common scan or probe positions. Avoid prolonged, stationary probing; use quick probe runs, always be aligned and ready to warp.
- Use a covert ops cloak when possible; avoid scanning from obvious safe spots (e.g., belts) where bombers can get easy warp‑in align.
For Haulers & Couriers
- Do not route high‑value cargo through Elarel unless in a dedicated, well‑escorted fleet. Single‑ship transit is high‑risk.
- If forced to transit, keep cargo light, bookmark safe warp‑outs, and use fastest align ships or cyno‑ready options if operating with allies (note: capital movement into the system is risky given confirmed dread presence).
For Combat/Small Gang Pilots
- Expect multi-role T3 fleets with E‑War support and stealth bomber harassment. Tackle + ECM + burst DPS will be focal threats. Prepare counter‑E‑War, strong point/warp disruption control, and focus on force composition rather than solo fights.
- Avoid engaging without logi/heavy tackle if multiple Lokis/Tengus are suspected; these doctrines are optimized for coordinated engagements.
For Fleet/Capital Considerations
- Do not stage or deploy capitals or expensive subcap fleets in Elarel while Moros NI activity is confirmed. Capital presence in lowsec has been observed — a capital response to opposition is likely.
- Any strategic operation should assume enemy capital deterrent is on call; plan extraction contingencies accordingly.
Immediate On-Grid Procedures (if tackled or engaged)
- Miners/explorers/haulers: align to nearest warpable celestial/bookmark and attempt immediate warp; do not fight a coordinated T3 + bomber ambush.
- If a capsule/pod is targeted by bombers: capsule survival is low — pod pilots should prioritize escape via pre‑set warpouts/cloak if available.
- Combat pilots: call for normal fleet responses (tackle/logi/align out) — avoid trading into multi‑E‑War+T3 setups without a prepared counter.
Longer‑term Mitigation
- Re-route industrial and courier traffic away from Elarel endpoints until the hunting groups disperse.
- If your organization must operate in Everyshore, restrict high‑value/time‑sensitive operations to windows outside the observed peak (but note: activity is near‑persistent; risk remains).
Bottom Line
Elarel is an active, organized lowsec hunting ground. Solo industrial activity, exploration in uncloak/slow vessels, and light cruiser transit are all high‑risk. Do not assume short windows of safety — attackers maintain a near‑constant tempo with both covert‑ops strike capability and strategic cruiser fleets, and capital threats have been observed. Adjust operations and routing accordingly.