Elarel – 2025-11-20
Summary
- Current assessed threat: HIGH (4.0). Elarel is actively patrolled by a compact, professional predator group using Strategic Cruisers (Loki, Tengu), Stealth Bombers (Manticore) and specialized HAC/Recon (Ikitursa, Curse).
- Primary targets: miners and industrial pilots (Venture, Procurer, Retriever, Mackinaw, Miasmos, Orca), small explorers (Heron, Probe) and isolated combat hulls. High-value kills (Exhumers, Battleships, Orca) have been recorded.
- Peak danger window: broadly 10:00–18:00 UTC daily, with extended activity into late evening and isolated early-morning operations.
Current threat posture
- Threat Level: 4.0 — Dedicated predators using coordinated gangs and high-end hulls.
- Tactics observed: rapid alpha strikes, EWAR support, covert reconnaissance and gate-camp interdiction. Use of Covert Ops cloaks and Stealth Bombers enables near-unavoidable first-strike kills.
- If the repeat attacker names below appear in local, assume an active gang.
Observed high-risk actors (repeat offenders)
- Hunter Dredd — Loki (gang leader / primary DPS)
- John Shepard21 — Loki (paired heavy DPS / finisher)
- Cailin Dioltas — Manticore (stealth bomber / fast kills)
- Kayla Starchild — Tengu (support / missile/ECM flexibility)
- Boruet Annages — Curse / Ikitursa (EWAR & HAC short-range power)
- Peter Powers / Aladar Krahn / Dejan Estemaire — Tengu (roamers)
Temporal pattern (highlights)
- Most sustained danger: 10:00–18:00 UTC (consistent daily peak).
- Notable extended windows: activity recorded up to 00:00 and as early as 03:00 UTC on some days — suggests alternating shifts/continuous patrols.
Risk guidance (grounded in observed behavior)
- Miners / industrial pilots
- Do NOT mine in Elarel alone or in an unescorted barge/Exhumer/Orca. The group actively targets these hulls.
- If mining/hauling is unavoidable, travel only with dedicated combat escorts (logistics and tackle), use scouts, and maintain immediate egress plans. Expect high alpha and EWAR; escorts must be prepared for quick, heavy engagements.
- Small-ship pilots (frigates/destroyers/cruisers)
- Small hulls are high-probability losses against T3Cs, HACs and stealth bomber tactics. Avoid solo roams during peak windows.
- If operating a small/fast hull, prefer covert or cloaky scouting roles and never linger at gates or bookmarks without fleet backup.
- Combat-capable pilots planning to engage
- Treat the enemy as a coordinated T3/HAC/Recon gang with EWAR capability. Bring a prepared fleet with tackle, logistics, EWAR counters and rapid-deploy DPS — do not assume one-on-one fights.
- Be wary of Curse presence indicating active neutralizers/dampeners; capacity warfare and remote reps should be planned accordingly.
- Transit advice
- Avoid transits through Elarel during 10:00–18:00 UTC where possible. If transit is mandatory, move in groups with scouts, align to clear exit points, and be prepared to warp immediately.
- If you see the recurring names in local, delay transit or assume combat contact is imminent.
Tactical mitigation (practical measures)
- Travel in numbers. The group’s core strength is alpha and coordinated engagement; numbers and prepared support reduce single-target profitability for them.
- Use covert/scout probes and a cloaked scout to check gates and cynos before committing larger ships.
- Have bookmarks for safe-gating and pre-planned escape warp points. Do not sit in warp-in bubbles or bookmarks used regularly.
- Cap and tackle readiness: expect neutralizers/ewar — bring cap stability or cap injection contingency and strong tackle to prevent fast disengages by the attackers.
- Avoid predictable single-ship hauling/mining patterns; use diversity in routing and concealment where possible.
Intelligence conclusion
Elarel is effectively controlled by an organized predatory element with T3C, bomber and HAC capability. Non-combat and lightly equipped combat ships face extreme risk, especially during the 10:00–18:00 UTC window. Only well-supported, prepared fleets should consider sustained operations in-system.