Elarel – 2025-11-09
Date: 2025-11-09
Classification: COMPREHENSIBLE ANALYSIS (Public Advisory — Everyshore Region, Low-Sec)
Executive Summary
- Elarel is currently experiencing a concentrated, repeat predator pattern. Primary operatives identified are Cadhla Dioltas and Cailin Dioltas (high-mobility/covert platforms) with intermittent heavy escalation from Nhimyk (T2/Marauder platforms).
- Threat Level: 4.0 (High Danger) for vulnerable industrials and light combat ships. Period of sustained highest risk: 12:00 UTC through 03:00 UTC.
- Primary targets observed: Venture-class miners/industrials, Algos and other T1 destroyer/frigate PvE/PvP fits, and occasional cruiser/battlecruiser losses when heavier actors (Nhimyk) are present.
Threat Picture (what the analyst observed)
- Predator profile: Coordinated Hunter-Killer cell using cloaky/Covert Ops strikes followed by high-mobility tackle and long-range follow-up. Typical platforms:
- Cailin Dioltas: Manticore (Stealth Bomber) — ambush/torpedo strikes against industrials and capsules.
- Cadhla Dioltas: Garmur / Tengu / Tholos — fast tackle, strategic cruiser follow-up and heavier sub-capital damage.
- Nhimyk (intermittent): Paladin / Loki — high-tank, heavy escalation capable of destroying cruisers and haulers.
- Temporal pattern:
- EU Prime / Early USTZ (12:00–18:00 UTC): Dioltas duo most active — multiple rapid, repeat kills on same victims.
- Late USTZ / Midnight (00:00–03:00 UTC): Dioltas + occasional Nhimyk; higher tonnage/ship-value losses.
- Behavioral note: Some victims are repeatedly targeted (e.g., one pilot lost multiple Ventures and capsules). Two anomalous losses show no attackers listed — possible NPC/Sleeper or non-standard engagement context.
Immediate Risk Assessment
- Industrials (Venture, Procurer, Iteron): Guaranteed high risk when operated solo in belts/low-sec anomalies during peak windows. Real_Thread: 4.0.
- Light PvP / PvE ships (Algos, Omen, T1 Destroyers): High risk against coordinated multi-ship engagements. Real_Thread: 3.5.
- Cruisers / Battlecruisers (Cynabal, Thrasher FI): At risk primarily when Marauder/T3 presence is reported. Real_Thread: 4.5 when Nhimyk is active.
Recommended Actionable Precautions (rooted in observed intel)
- Avoid solo industrial operations in Elarel during 12:00–03:00 UTC.
- If you must mine or run anomalies, do so outside the stated hours and vary routines and spawn points.
- Do not transit alone in Ventures, Iterons, or other unarmed industrials during peak windows.
- Use escorts: groups of combat-capable ships greatly reduce vulnerability to bomber + tackle pairs.
- For explorers and small PvPers (Algos/Omen/T1 Destroyers):
- Avoid lingering in belts/mission pockets; align to safe bookmarks and keep fast warp profile.
- Consider flying ships with higher mobility/tank when operating in-system during active windows, or move operations to a neighboring lower-risk system.
- If operating cruisers or higher-value combat ships:
- Be especially cautious 00:00–03:00 UTC — the presence of Marauder/Loki-class opponents has produced cruiser losses. Avoid solo roams without local intel on Nhimyk’s activity.
- Operational security best practices:
- Vary routines and docking behavior; avoid predictable patterns (repeated loss of same pilot indicates predictability is exploited).
- Use safe-bookmarks, warp-to-0 where appropriate, and maintain probes/d-scan discipline. Always be aligned and ready to warp.
- Travel with scouts/overwatch where possible; maintain a quick-exit plan.
- Capsule and clone safety:
- Capsules are being destroyed post-industrial kills. Ensure clones are not left in high-traffic medical facilities if you anticipate repeated returns to Elarel.
- If engaged by cloaky/covert tactics (Manticore/Garmur):
- Expect rapid kill windows. Fighting these setups solo is unlikely to succeed; extraction is the sensible option unless you have prepared countermeasures (group support, EWAR, or dedicated anti-bomber assets).
Operational Note
- This is a concentrated, tactical H-K cell that prefers stealth and speed to produce high-value but low-effort kills on predictable targets. Presence of a Marauder-capable pilot is an escalation sign — treat reports of Paladin/Loki as a trigger to immediately raise security posture.
Closing
Elarel is a high-risk low-sec system at present for industrial and light combat operations. Modify schedules, move vulnerable activity out of system during the 12:00–03:00 UTC danger window, and avoid solo predictable behavior. The Dioltas duo and the intermittent heavy-hitter (Nhimyk) are the primary drivers of this threat environment.
Everyshore Intel Network will continue monitoring patterns; this advisory is based solely on the provided analyst data.