Elarel – 2025-10-25
Overall Threat Level: 3.5 / 5.0 — Significant Risk (Active Predator Environment)
Executive summary
- Elarel is being actively and repeatedly exploited by a small set of highly committed predators. Battleship-class ganking (Abaddon, Praxis) and heavy cruiser activity (Gnosis, Proteus) make the system hostile to non‑combat traffic.
- The single most dangerous actor is Serqet Daphiti (Abaddon). Soft, low‑mass targets — shuttles, capsules, and common haulers — are being hunted aggressively and should be considered near‑certain losses if transiting the system during observed activity windows.
Confirmed threat actors (observed)
- Serqet Daphiti — Abaddon — Kill count: 20 — Tactical risk: 5.0 (primary capital-class predator; gate/station camper)
- Kaitlynn — Praxis / Abaddon — Kill count: 14 — Tactical risk: 4.5 (heavy-hitter; concentrated activity on Oct 21)
- Dejan Estemaire — Gnosis — Kill count: 4 — Tactical risk: 3.5 (opportunist against haulers)
- Cailin Dioltas — Manticore — Kill count: 2 — Tactical risk: 3.0 (stealth bomber threats to single targets)
- Michel Ferran — Proteus — Kill count: 1 — Tactical risk: 3.0 (sporadic T3C capability)
- Tarek Voidstrider — Unclear (self-destruct/loss) — Kill count: 2 — Tactical risk: 2.0 (unconfirmed attacker signature)
Timing / windows of observed activity (UTC)
- Sunday 19th: 21:00–23:00 — HIGH (Serqet Daphiti surge)
- Monday 20th: 04:00–10:00 — Moderate–High
- Tuesday 21st: 12:00–23:30 — CRITICAL (heaviest day; Kaitlynn highly active)
- Wednesday 22nd: 07:00–21:00 — HIGH (widespread daytime/evening activity)
- Thursday 23rd: 17:00–22:00 — Moderate
- Friday 24th: 02:00–03:00 — Low–Moderate
- Saturday 25th: 12:00–13:00 — Low (single midday event)
Advisory / Recommended actions (rooted in observed data)
- Do not transit Elarel in shuttles or capsules. Analyst data rates these targets as effectively guaranteed losses (real_thread 5.0). Undocking these hulls into Elarel is high‑probability death.
- Avoid hauling through Elarel with Miasmos / Iteron Mk V or similar non‑combat freighters. Haulers recorded as specific targets (real_thread 4.5).
- If you must pass through, avoid the critical windows — especially Tuesday 12:00–23:30 UTC and the repeated EU/US prime periods listed above. Transit during the noted low windows (Friday 02:00–03:00 UTC; Saturday 12:00–13:00 UTC) carries lower, not zero, risk.
- Prefer alternative routing that bypasses Elarel entirely where practical. The presence of dedicated battleship gankers makes safe transit unlikely.
- If passage is unavoidable, travel in a combat‑capable, high‑mobility ship or with an escort. Passive civilian fits (shuttles, T1 haulers, unarmed exploration frigates) are being actively targeted and will not survive most encounters.
- Use survivability measures consistent with facing gate/station camps: remain aligned, keep a burn/warp plan, and be prepared to warp immediately. Cloak/covops use mitigates risk where applicable (Cailin Dioltas uses a Manticore stealth bomber in select attacks).
- Treat any presence of Abaddon/Praxis in local as an immediate escalation of danger. These platforms are being used specifically to kill soft targets in-system; sightings correlate strongly with imminent ganking events.
If engaged
- Prioritize escape over engagement unless you have confirmed support. The primary observed tactics are high‑dps ganks from battleship platforms; solo soft ships are at a severe disadvantage.
- Do not rely on “off‑peak” complacency — the predators operate across multiple timezones and have demonstrated activity in early‑morning and late‑night UTC.
Bottom line
- Elarel is an active predator environment dominated by a few repeat battleship/cruiser operators. For unaligned or non‑combat pilots, the system is high risk — avoid Shuttles/Capsules/Haulers entirely and route around the system where possible. If transit cannot be avoided, only do so during the lowest‑observed windows and only in ships and fits capable of surviving a dedicated gank.