Mannar – 2025-11-09
Date: YC127.11 (intel period 2025-11-02 → 2025-11-08)
System: Mannar (Everyshore) — Analyst notes list this as High‑Sec, but threat behavior and tactics warrant Low‑Sec style caution.
Executive Summary
Mannar is under an organized, professional Black Ops hot‑drop campaign (RTL 4.5) centered on Redeemer‑class Black Ops Battleships. A secondary, opportunistic interdiction/tackle group (RTL ~3.0) performs rapid follow‑up cleanups. The most concentrated activity occurred Saturday 2025-11-08 between 07:50 Z and 09:12 Z. High‑value, high‑mobility ships (Covert Ops, Strategic Cruisers, Force Recon, high‑sec haulers) are at extreme risk during the identified windows.
What was observed (key facts)
- Total incidents (period): 14 (1 failed attack, 13 successful kills).
- Main strike window: Saturday 2025-11-08, 07:50–09:12 Z (peak clustering at 07:50–08:30 Z).
- Primary vector: Redeemer Black Ops hot‑drops supported by covert cyno/force recon (Arazu, Cenotaph), producing rapid alpha strikes.
- Secondary vector: Mixed follow‑up groups (Recons, Orthrus, Interceptors/Stilettos, Draugur) exploiting aggression timers and surviving targets.
- Typical victims: Osprey cruisers (3), Tengu/Loki strategic cruisers (2), Arazu force recon, a Naga battlecruiser, and a Mammoth hauler.
Identified repeat actors (frequent final‑blowers)
- Krimson Serenity — Redeemer (RTL 4.5)
- Hippaforalkus Alteranus — Redeemer (RTL 4.5)
- Ronnie Cordova — Redeemer (RTL 4.0)
- CaptainSarge — Redeemer (RTL 4.0)
- Spunky Squid — Exequror Navy Issue (RTL 3.5)
- Nihlius Bloodstone — Draugur (RTL 3.0)
(Analysis: repeated Redeemer usage and synchronized kills indicate a single organized Black Ops gang rather than random ganking.)
Threat Assessment / RTL summary
- Redeemer Black Ops strikes: RTL 4.5 — high alpha, coordinated hot‑drops, rapid sequential kills.
- Strategic/Covert ship exposures (T3 cruisers, Force Recons, Covert Ops): RTL 4.0–4.5 — targeted by primary group.
- Opportunistic interdiction (cleanup tackle/interceptors): RTL ~3.0 — able to finish off survivors or catch small tackle/pods.
Recommended Mitigation (rooted in observed data)
- Avoid Mannar during the primary window: Saturday 07:00–10:00 Z (highest observed activity 07:50–09:12 Z).
- Do not transit the system alone in Covert Ops, Strategic Cruisers, Force Recons, or high‑value haul ships during peak times.
- If you must operate in Mannar during risk hours:
- Use groups/fleets with local scouts and point‑defense; single‑pilot operations are high risk.
- Minimize time exposed in warp‑to locations (avoid loitering on gates/waypoints).
- Use low‑value/replaceable ships or shuttles for transits if cargo is non‑critical.
- Be prepared to dock immediately — the campaign demonstrates capability for rapid multiple kills.
- Treat Mannar as a high‑risk low‑sec style environment despite its high‑sec designation because covert cyno hot‑drops bypass expected “safe” behavior.
Operational Indicators to watch for (based on pattern)
- Multiple kills occurring within seconds in the same system (mass alpha strike).
- Rapid arrival of Redeemer‑class ships or multiple identical Black Ops.
- Follow‑on interception by small high‑speed tackle and Orthrus/Draugur elements shortly after the initial strike.
Intelligence gaps / caveats
- No confirmed corporate/alliance alignment for the attacker group from the collected data.
- One kill (Anathema) shows missing attacker records — could be data feed anomaly.
- The repeated use of identical ship classes strongly suggests an organized unit, but assignment or broader intent cannot be conclusively determined from kills alone.
Bottom line
Mannar is currently unsafe for solo or high‑value covert/strategic ops during weekend early‑morning UTC windows. Treat the system with low‑sec caution: postpone sensitive activity during Saturday 07:00–10:00 Z, or conduct ops only in prepared, fleet‑protected conditions with contingency plans to immediately exit or dock.