Elarel β 2025-09-29
Date: [Current Date]
System: Elarel (Low-Sec, Everyshore)
Threat Level: Amber (Elevated Risk)
Summary
Based on the latest intelligence briefing, Elarel is experiencing sustained, targeted aggression from a small set of highly active pilots. Mining and exploration operations β particularly Ventures and covert-run expedition ships β are repeatedly victimized. Expect elevated risk during specific UTC windows and on Sundays.
Peak Windows (UTC) β avoid if possible
- 07:00β10:00 β Moderate β Cailin Dioltas (Loki) frequently active
- 14:00β17:00 β Elevated β Cailin Dioltas & Aladar Krahn (Tholos/Orthrus)
- 16:00β19:00 β High β Multiple actors (Serqet/Dejan, Nikota Bravas, Peter Powers) β potential small-gang coordination
- 21:00β22:00 β Moderate solo activity
Days of particular concern
- Tuesdays & Wednesdays: Cailin Dioltas shows increased activity in morning/afternoon windows.
- Fridays: early-morning lone hunters (e.g., Cailin).
- Sundays: sustained, system-wide activity (notably Peter Powers & Aladar Krahn).
Primary Threat Profiles (from analyst data)
- Cailin Dioltas β Loki β highest risk to unprepared targets (repeated Venture/Explorer kills).
- Aladar Krahn β Loki/Tholos/Orthrus β stealth + fast-hitting ships; operates solo/small gang.
- Peter Powers β Absolution/Magus β methodical solo/small-gang threat, active Sundays.
- Serqet Daphiti & Dejan Estemaire β Zealot + Lachesis β coordinated warp disruption and heavy engagement.
- Nikota Bravas β Loki β late-afternoon threat to covert cruisers.
- Miner McBride β Gnosis β sporadic heavy-cruiser threat to industrials.
Tactical Advisory (grounded in provided intel)
- Miners & Expedition Runners: Do not run Ventures or unescorted expedition frigs here during listed windows. Use cloaky/covert ships, heavily tanked hulls, or fly with escorts. Consider moving operations to lower-traffic systems if not mission-critical.
- Transit & General Ops: Maintain strict OPSEC β stay aligned, pre-warp to safes, use D-scan continuously, and avoid prolonged idling on-grid. Expect cloaked attackers; do not assume local is safe.
- If engaged: Warp out early β many aggressors use rapid-engagement fits (Loki/Tholos/Orthrus/HAC) and may have backup. Re-approaching the system after a loss without changing tactics invites repeat targeting.
- Time your activity outside identified high-risk windows where feasible; Sundays and 16:00β19:00 UTC are notably dangerous.
Closing
This advisory is based on the analyst briefing for Elarel. Exercise heightened caution, alter plans to avoid peak windows, and prioritize escorted or cloaky operations while this pattern persists.