Mannar – 2025-11-02
Issued: 2025-11-02
Summary
- Mannar (Low‑Sec) is currently an elevated-risk system (Threat Level 3.5). Localized, persistent predation targets miners, explorers and small PvE/combat ships. A single high-coordination capital strike was recorded as a separate, high‑impact anomaly.
- High‑risk window: concentrated late UTC evening → early UTC morning. Exercise extreme caution between 23:00 UTC and 05:00 UTC.
Confirmed Threats
- Primary threat actor: Aladar Krahn — operating mainly in a Garmur (fast hunter) and occasionally a Tengu. Focuses on low-value industrial/explorer vessels (Venture, Endurance, Astero) and small combat ships (frigates/destroyers). Solo/duo kills repeatedly recorded.
- Secondary actor: Cadhla Dioltas — operates Tholos HAC in support of Krahn; enables small‑gang escalation.
- High‑coordination anomaly (2025‑10‑30): Redeemer / Sin heavy attack force (18+ attackers) engaged a Phoenix dreadnought. Attacking corps/alliances are not identified in available data — treat as an unknown, high‑value operation (Guaranteed Death for capital targets in the area).
Observed Patterns (analysis‑derived)
- Target profile: slow-to-align, high‑signature or unarmed ships (mining barges, exploration frigates, small cruisers). Repeated victim behavior increases local risk.
- Time concentration (UTC):
- 00:00–01:59 — High frequency (7 kills): miners and small combat ships
- 03:00–04:59 — Moderate frequency (3 kills): explorers and capital targets
- Behavior model: gate‑camp / opportunistic gank environment favoring fast tackle and hit‑and‑run engagements.
Top Threat Profiles (brief)
- Redeemer / Sin Fleet — BlOps/Heavy Attack fleet; targeted Phoenix (dreadnought). Real Threat: 5.0 (Guaranteed Death). Avoid capitals in system while this posture persists.
- Aladar Krahn — Garmur / Tengu solo‑duo hunter. Real Threat: 3.8 (High). Primary killer of Ventures, Endurances, Astero, frigates.
- Cadhla Dioltas — Tholos HAC supporting small‑gang ops. Real Threat: 3.5 (Elevated).
4–6. Persistent victim profiles (e.g., holopikaci, Xul Byte) — show how repeated local activity draws concentrated attention and increases risk for others.
Tactical Recommendations (rooted in observed intel)
- Industrialists / Prospectors / Explorers:
- Avoid operating in Mannar between 23:00–05:00 UTC. This window contains the majority of recorded kills.
- Do not undock unarmed in Ventures/Endurances when a single hostile is present locally. Aladar Krahn alone is sufficient to secure kills.
- Use fast, highly agile transit ships (interceptors or similarly fast fits) for in‑system travel; align bookmarks and warp‑out prepped before starting activities.
- Prefer shorter, discrete runs rather than extended in‑system staying. Minimize time spent in warp‑range of gates/stations without fleet support.
- Solo/Small‑Gang Combat pilots:
- Treat Mannar as unsafe for solo cruiser/tackle operations unless you have clear local superiority or ready backup.
- Expect fast tackle (Garmur) and small‑gang support (Tholos). Anti‑frigate setups and quick point removal tools are effective counters.
- If engaging a suspected fleet/capital action (Redeemer/Sin), assume attackers are organized and numerically superior — do not contest without coordinated fleet support and intel on attacker composition.
- Capitals / High‑Value Transit:
- Avoid moving capitals or high‑value assets through Mannar while the Redeemer/Sin posture is active. The Phoenix engagement confirms the system has been used for high‑coordination capital operations.
- General precautions:
- Keep a safe optical + warp bookmark on undock and gate approaches; maintain pre‑aligned vectors.
- Assume increased lethality for pilots who repeatedly return to the same signatures/sites after losses — attracting attention raises local risk.
Closing
Mannar is a high‑risk low‑sec system with a reliable solo/duo predator and occasional spikes of coordinated heavy force. Adjust operation times, ship choices, and transit plans accordingly. Avoid the peak hours and treat any single hostile pilot in local as a credible kill threat to unarmed industrial and exploration hulls.