Everyshore Intelligence Network

EIN-Advisory — Gerper: Capital Fleet Surges Convert High‑Sec System into Intermittent Warzone (Analysis window: 2025-11-01 → 2025-11-07)

Date: 2025-11-09 (Simulated analysis)

Executive summary

• Gerper is exhibiting two concurrent threat patterns: routine opportunistic small‑gang harassment and repeated, highly coordinated capital‑level fleet actions.
• The most critical risk window is Wednesday mornings (UTC), centered on ~10:00–12:00 UTC, when large capital fleets (multiple Zirnitra dreadnoughts, Revelations, Naglfars plus Leshak and other heavy battleships) conducted a full‑scale engagement. This window produced a Real_Thread of 5.0 (Guaranteed death for most ships in system).
• Overall period average real_thread = 2.8 (Moderate), but baseline outside capital activity is ~1.5 (Low).

Threat timeline (key windows)

• Wed (Nov 5) 10:00–12:00 UTC — Critical: coordinated capital fleet engagement; capital and heavy battleship composition. Avoid system.
• Tue (Nov 4) ~08:00–09:00 UTC — Low‑level BC gank observed (hauler loss).
• Sat (Nov 1) 03:00–04:00 & 23:00–00:00 UTC — Small gang harassment (T3C/T3D, localized).
• Fri (Nov 7) 03:00–04:00 UTC — Small gang action targeting Orca/Dominix.

Primary hostile capabilities observed

• Capital Fleet (highest risk): Zirnitra dreadnoughts (dominant), Revelation, Naglfar; heavy battleships including Leshak, Tempest Fleet Issue, Vindicator. Targets included Force Auxiliaries (Apostle), Black Ops, dreadnoughts — indicates intent and capability to purge major assets or clear a fixed objective (e.g., structure or anchored fleet).
• Small tactical groups: Tengu/Loki/T3 cruisers, Jackdaw/Hyena, and destroyer gangs — effective against battlecruisers, destroyers and industrials.
• Industrial gankers: occasional single‑target hauler assaults.

Attribution

• Kill data shows ship composition and patterns but does not reliably identify alliances/corporations as primary actors. Attacker affiliations are not consistently present in the sampled records.

Operational risk guidance (based on observed data)

• Avoid Gerper entirely during Wednesday 09:30–12:30 UTC (high‑probability capital surge). Remaining in system during that window carries Extreme risk (Real_Thread 5.0).
• If you must transit during the peak window:
  • Do not bring capital ships, force auxiliaries, Black Ops, or other high‑value hulls into Gerper.
  • Use small, fast, aligned/covert ships able to cloak or warp out instantly; minimize time at probe/warp signatures.
  • Travel with cyno suppression and scout layers where available; consider alternate routes that bypass Gerper when possible.
• Outside peak windows:
  • Expect intermittent small‑gang harassment during early morning (03:00–04:00 UTC) and late evening (23:00 UTC) windows. Keep situational awareness, stay aligned, use scouts, and avoid isolated mining/industry ops without escort.
  • Industrials (Orca, Badger) and lone battleships are primary targets of the small gangs — avoid undocked, unescorted ops.
• If planning operations that require force protection (structure timers, fleet actions, logistics staging) in Gerper:
  • Prepare for possible capital engagement in the Wednesday morning window; commit to full fleet readiness with capital and subcap coordination, or reschedule.
  • Expect the hostile fleet to include long‑range dreadnought bombardment and high‑DPS battleship screens; logistics and anchoring discipline will be critical.

Intelligence assessment & outlook

• The presence of multiple Zirnitra dreadnoughts and coordinated Leshak/TFI heavy battleship concentrations indicates a persistent, organized military entity is using Gerper as a staging or choke point. Similar capital surges are highly probable to recur in the observed mid‑week morning window.
• Outside the capital surges, the threat environment reverts to manageable small‑gang activity typical of contested space, but still presents a real risk to unescorted industrials and lone battleships.

Bottom line

• Do not transit or operate high‑value ships in Gerper during Wednesday morning peak hours (approx. 10:00–12:00 UTC). Outside those hours, maintain heightened caution for small gang activity and avoid isolated industrial ops. Attacker affiliations remain unidentified from the available kill records; the ship composition alone indicates a high level of organization and lethal capability during peak events.